Physician-Epidemiologist

Muhammad Zia ul Haq

Real-world evidence · Causal inference · AI in clinical workflows

I help healthcare teams and startups design studies that hold up and read real-world data with clinical judgment. Physician trained at Nishtar, epidemiologist trained at Emory, and a PhD candidate at the University of Michigan, with applied work spanning EHR analytics, clinical AI evaluation, and NIH and BARDA grant science.

144,369EHR messages mapped in a peer-reviewed clinical-communication network study
47,460patients across 85 specialties in that network
2M+unstructured EHR encounters analyzed with R, Python, and Neo4j
6graduate students and residents mentored, yielding 3 publications
About

A clinician who reads data, and a methodologist who has seen the ward.

My work sits between two rooms that rarely talk to each other: the clinic, where decisions get made under uncertainty, and the analysis, where those decisions are supposed to be defensible. I trained first as a physician in Pakistan, then as an epidemiologist at Emory, and I am now completing a PhD at Michigan on longitudinal recovery after stroke.

For industry and startup teams, that combination does a specific job. I can tell whether a real-world dataset can actually answer the question being asked of it, design the study so the estimate survives scrutiny, and translate the result for a clinical audience without losing what the numbers can and cannot support. I have built EHR and revenue-cycle pipelines, evaluated a clinical AI system for patient-portal message triage, and written the methods sections that NIH and BARDA reviewers read closely.

The through-line is restraint. I care more about an honest estimate with named limitations than a polished one that performs rigor it does not have.

Clinical fluencyMD with hospital training; I speak the clinician's language and the analyst's.
Methodological rigorCausal inference and study design as a working craft, not a checklist.
Real-world dataEHR, claims, revenue cycle, and registry data, from question to estimate.
Regulatory literacyGCP, IRB, and FDA real-world evidence framing built into the design.
What I do

Advisory and consulting capabilities

Engagements range from a single methods review to standing advisory work. Each of these is something I have shipped, not a service page.

Real-world evidence & observational studies

Design and analysis on EHR, claims, and registry data. I scope what a dataset can support, choose the design that fits the question, and carry it through to a defensible estimate.

Causal inference & biostatistics

Marginal structural models, inverse probability weighting, g-methods, survival and mixed-effects modeling. Delivered in R, Python, SAS, or STATA with reproducible code.

AI & data products in clinical workflows

Evaluation of clinical NLP and machine-learning systems, graph analytics on messaging data, and REDCap data infrastructure. First-hand experience assessing model behavior against clinical reality.

Regulatory & trial methods

GCP-compliant protocols, IRB submissions, data safety monitoring plans, trial registration, and FDA real-world evidence framing built in from the design stage.

Grant & scientific writing

Lead and co-author on NIH and BARDA proposals and peer-reviewed publications. Methods sections, study rationale, and the cover-letter case for why the work belongs where it is submitted.

Teaching & team mentoring

Graduate curriculum development and hands-on mentoring of analysts, students, and clinical residents in study design, critical appraisal, and data management.

Research, visualized

What real-world data looks like when you map it

Both panels are drawn from my peer-reviewed study of clinical messaging at a large academic health system. Hover the network to trace how message load moves between roles. Every number is from the published paper.

The clinical communication network

Directed message flow between roles. Node size scales with message volume; edge width scales with the number of messages sent.
Recreated from the reported role-level message counts in Zia ul Haq M, Hornback A, Harzand A, et al. Graph theoretic visualization of patient and health worker messaging in the EHR. Front Artif Intell. 2024;7:1422208. Data via PubMed. doi:10.3389/frai.2024.1422208 · interactive version & reproducible code

Message burden by role

Average message touches per health-worker type. Nurses and assistants absorb the heaviest load.
76,694clinical conversations
3,749health workers
2.10average network degree
0.40network modularity
Average touches per role and network statistics from the same study. Data via PubMed. doi:10.3389/frai.2024.1422208

Modeling longitudinal recovery after stroke

Illustrative
The shape of the question my dissertation asks: how functional recovery unfolds over the year after an intracerebral hemorrhage, and how trajectories separate across groups. Toggle a group on or off; hover a point.
Synthetic data for illustration, not study results. A schematic of the mixed-effects trajectory modeling (marginal structural models, inverse probability weighting) behind the BASIC study analysis. Real estimates appear in Zia ul Haq M, Kwicklis M, Zahuranec DB, Morgenstern LB, Lisabeth LD. Circulation. 2025;151(Suppl 1):P3177. doi:10.1161/cir.151.suppl_1.P3177
Open source

Methods, written down as code

One instinct runs through both of these: keep disagreement and uncertainty in view instead of quietly averaging or automating them away. An R package that keeps a confidence interval honest when its sources disagree, and a Claude Agent Skill that assesses risk of bias by a fixed, checkable rule set and refuses to sign its own name to the result.

popburden

R package
Reconciling disagreeing prevalence sources into one patient-population estimate that keeps its confidence interval.

popburden pools independent source estimates by inverse-variance weighting with DerSimonian–Laird random effects, so real between-source disagreement widens the interval rather than disappearing into the mean. It standardizes rates against a reference population, with a Poisson bootstrap interval where counts are small; converts a rate into an absolute patient count by Monte Carlo simulation; and projects that count forward under stated demographic assumptions. Every numeric routine returns an uncertainty estimate, and none of them quietly drop the confidence interval. The package ships with a test suite, a worked vignette on a clearly labeled synthetic dataset, and continuous integration that runs on every push.

Inverse-variance & DerSimonian–Laird pooling Direct age standardization Monte Carlo uncertainty testthat + roxygen2 GitHub Actions CI
View source on GitHub

srx

Claude Agent Skill
A Cochrane-grade risk-of-bias extraction and assessment tool that never issues a judgement in its own name.

srx is a deterministic judgement engine for Cochrane's RoB 2 (parallel, cluster, crossover) and ROBINS-I V2 risk-of-bias instruments, built as an Agent Skill for Claude Code. Signalling-question answers are the model's job, and every one must resolve as a verbatim quote in the ingested source text before it can be used; the domain and overall judgements are the algorithm's job, computed by a pure-function rule engine transcribed line-by-line from the official flowcharts and tables — never by a model call. Every rule cites the table or figure it came from, and every place the primary sources were ambiguous or self-contradictory is logged with how it was resolved. The output is a signed-by-nobody draft for a named human assessor, with exports to Covidence, RevMan Web, robvis, and GRADE.

RoB 2 · parallel / cluster / crossover ROBINS-I V2 Deterministic rule engine, no model judgement Verbatim-quote provenance 293 tests · 161K+ exhaustive answer sets Covidence · RevMan Web · robvis · GRADE exports
Try the domain-1 logic Simplified, illustrative

A miniature version of RoB 2 domain 1, “bias arising from the randomization process.” The real engine encodes the full flowchart — five response levels per question, gap-filling rules cited to their source table — as data, not as this toggle. This is here to show the shape of the logic: judgement is computed, not modeled.

Low risk of biasSequence random, allocation concealed, no baseline imbalance.
View source on GitHub
Experience

Where I have worked

Industry, multilateral, academic, and clinical settings across the United States and Pakistan.

Research Strategy Advisor (Consultant)

Switchboard, MD · Ann Arbor / Remote
Jun 2022 – Present/Health-tech

Lead research and data strategy at a digital-health startup building AI for clinical workflows and the healthcare revenue cycle. Advise on real-world-data analytics with graph databases (Neo4j) over structured and unstructured EHR data, co-led the technical design and grant writing for a multi-million-dollar BARDA proposal to integrate AI and real-world data into clinical workflows, contribute to NIH proposals, mentor junior staff, and co-author manuscripts on AI in public health.

Senior Instructor

Aga Khan University · Karachi, Pakistan
Sep 2023 – Jun 2024/Academic

Developed and taught graduate curriculum in study design, real-world-data analysis, and critical appraisal for more than 30 students. Co-led study design and protocol writing for two successful NIH research-grant acquisitions in cardiovascular epidemiology, and mentored six master's students and clinical residents on real-world-data theses, yielding three peer-reviewed publications.

Consultant & EMRO Fellow, Non-Communicable Diseases

World Health Organization · Eastern Mediterranean (Cairo) & Western Pacific Offices
Jan 2023 – Oct 2024/Multilateral

Supported implementation of WHO Technical Packages and the Regional Framework for Action on Diabetes and Rheumatic Heart Disease across Eastern Mediterranean Region countries, and authored a technical report and policy briefs on non-communicable-disease management in emergency settings. Synthesized IHME GBD, WHO, and national survey data into NCD country profiles for member states including Yemen, Tonga, and Fiji, addressing confounding and bias in the multinational analyses.

Graduate Research Assistant

Emory University School of Medicine · Atlanta
Nov 2020 – Dec 2021/Research

Built the evidence base for a database of FDA-approved drugs repurposed for cancer, first assembled at the Morningside Center for Innovative and Affordable Medicine. Designed abstraction protocols, ran structured literature searches, appraised safety and efficacy (quality of life, progression-free and overall survival, response rate) across hundreds of studies, and independently built REDCap instruments for annotation and quality control.

Senior Medical Officer

Primary & Secondary Healthcare Department · Rawalpindi, Pakistan
Sep 2018 – Jul 2019/Public health

Led disease-prevention work including surveillance, EPI immunization, and polio-eradication activity at the community level. Oversaw frontline health-worker performance and record-keeping, established diagnoses, and managed referral to secondary care.

Investigator

Emory Global Health Initiative · Atlanta & Pakistan
Jun 2018 – Jul 2019/Global health

Supervised development of a prehospital assessment and transport smartphone application for trauma triage, and established a trauma referral network and registry with Pakistani and United States stakeholders.

House Officer

Nishtar Medical University · Multan
May 2017 – May 2018/Clinical

Managed inpatient and outpatient care across medical and surgical units, with rotations in neurosurgery and psychiatry, reinforcing clinical rigor and diagnostic reasoning.

Research

Selected publications

Peer-reviewed work across clinical AI, EHR analytics, stroke recovery, and cardiovascular epidemiology. Author name in bold indicates first or shared-first authorship.

NEJM AI · 2025
Development and Evaluation of a Model to Manage Patient Portal MessagesClinical AI
Anderson BJ, Zia ul Haq M, Zhu Y, et al. NEJM AI. 2025;2(3). 10.1056/AIoa2400354
Frontiers in AI · 2024
Graph-theoretic visualization of patient and health-worker messaging in the EHRFirst author
Zia ul Haq M, Hornback A, Harzand A, Gutman DA, Gallaher B, Schoenberg ED, Zhu Y, Wang MD, Anderson B. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence. 2024;7:1422208. 10.3389/frai.2024.1422208
Circulation · 2025
Longitudinal recovery after intracerebral hemorrhage: insights from the BASIC studyFirst author
Zia ul Haq M, Kwicklis M, Zahuranec DB, Morgenstern LB, Lisabeth LD. Circulation. 2025;151(Suppl 1):P3177. 10.1161/cir.151.suppl_1.P3177
Cochrane · 2025
Melatonin for blood pressure control in adults (Protocol)First author
Zia ul Haq M, Mansoor J, Lima Dos Santos CC, Perez Ramos AA, Pinzon Cueva E, Harzand A. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. In press, 2025.
BMJ Open · 2024
Effect of high-efficiency particulate air filters on children with asthma: a systematic review protocol of RCTs
Mansoor J, Zia ul Haq M, Ahsan Z, et al. BMJ Open. 2024;14(12):e087493. 10.1136/bmjopen-2024-087493
Cureus · 2023
The influence of sex, age, and race on coronary artery disease: a narrative review
Lima Dos Santos CC, Matharoo AS, Zia ul Haq M. Cureus. 2023;15(10):e47799. 10.7759/cureus.47799
Thesis & data
Phospholipid fatty acids and incident type 2 diabetes (CARRS nested case-control) · ReMeDy Cancer dataset
Zia ul Haq M. Master's thesis, Emory University, 2021 · ReMeDy Cancer [Dataset], Emory University, 2023. remedycancer.app.emory.edu

Full list and citation metrics on Google Scholar.

Education & recognition

Training and honors

University of Michigan

PhD Candidate, Epidemiology · GPA 4.0
Ann Arbor · Aug 2024 – Present

Dissertation: longitudinal recovery after intracerebral hemorrhage (BASIC study). Methods: marginal structural models, inverse probability weighting, mixed-effects survival analysis.

Emory University, Rollins School of Public Health

Master of Public Health, Epidemiology · GPA 4.0
Atlanta · Dec 2021 · Certificate in Genetic & Molecular Epidemiology

Nishtar Medical University

MBBS (Bachelor of Medicine, Bachelor of Surgery)
Multan · 2016 · House Officer 2017–18

Honors & fellowships

Rackham Merit FellowUniversity of Michigan
Phi Kappa Phi, Centennial ClassTop 10% of graduate students, U-M chapter, 2026
AHA Early Career Engagement AwardAmerican Heart Association, Genomic & Precision Medicine
Fulbright ScholarshipU.S. Department of State
Ross Leaders Academy, 2025-26Stephen M. Ross School of Business, U-M
REAL Financial AwardEmory University
Toolkit

Skills, tools, and training

Programming & data

R (tidyverse, nlme) Python (pandas, statsmodels) SAS 9.4 STATA REDCap Neo4j Gephi EHR / claims / revenue-cycle data

Epidemiologic methods

Cohort & case-control design RCT & pharmacovigilance Marginal structural models Inverse probability weighting G-methods Survival analysis Mixed-effects models Network analysis

Regulatory & clinical

Good Clinical Practice (GCP) CITI Human Subjects FDA real-world evidence IRB submissions Data safety monitoring Trial registration

Certifications & leadership

Good Clinical Practice (GCP)Clinical trial conduct standard
CITI Human Subjects ResearchResearch ethics certification
Certificate in Genetic & Molecular EpidemiologyEmory Rollins
Ross Leaders AcademyLeadership, identity, and inclusive management

Languages

English · fluent Urdu / Hindi · native Punjabi · fluent Saraiki · fluent Spanish · conversational Arabic · basic

National conference presenter: EPI Lifestyle 2025, CSTE 2025, SER 2025, Emory Rollins 2021.

Contact

Let us talk about your data problem

Available for consulting, advisory, and collaborative research on real-world evidence, causal inference, and clinical AI. The clearest way to reach me is email.